“Good morning David, how are you doing today?” Hal says as he floats across the room towards me. The head-sized metallic spheroid flickers briefly in the sun as it passes a window on the way over. I’m still astonished by the floating every time I see Hal (he’s tried to explain it to me before, but I’m no physicist: Something to do with electro-magnets.)
“Can’t complain myself, and you, Hal?” I say, motioning him over to the sofa I’m sitting on. Hal floats to the armchair opposite and gently descends, sinking deeper into the sofa than his size would suggest.
“Good, good. I’m feeling fine myself. It’s good to see you again, David.”
“Likewise”. Despite not having a “face”, I can detect genuine emotion in Hal’s voice. He is pleased to see me. We chat for a bit, discussing the latest holo-novel in a series that we are both fans of. Of course, Hal was able to point out a few thematic notes that I had missed.

“Shall we continue where we left off last time?” Hal signals to the VR goggles on the coffee table.

“Sure, I’ve been looking forward to it,” I reply before reaching for the goggles and earphones. After a beep, I’m transported to another world. Not really, of course – this is just VR – but the bustling streets look and sound so real. The streets even smell real — Hal is excreting some odd chemical mixture — an overpowering, foetid mixture of faeces, incense, and sweat. Despite the smell, this facsimile of the Eternal City is breathtaking. Vibrant togas and other garments adorn the people passing by, beautiful cobbled roads extend into the distance as far as the eye can see.

For the past few weeks I’ve been following an educational course on Ancient Rome. We’ve been tracing the history of the city and its people from the birth of the Republic. Today isn’t a particularly important day in Roman history, but we are approaching the end of the Pax Romana. Walking through the various markets and alleyways comprising this section of the city, I see a prosperous and happy nation, seemingly oblivious to the slow decline that is to come.

After exploring the city for another hour, I signal to Hal and remove my goggles. He’s been powering the simulation. We discuss the time period for some time, Hal provides additional context and explanations. Comparisons to the present day are unavoidable, so many of the people working to make ends meet, to survive. It’s strange how quickly we got used to not needing to do that. Of course, there are still jobs for us humans, take PAO for instance, but those are few and far between. I remember having to work myself, I was a software developer up until just a few years ago, but that seems so distant now. It’s strange how much importance we ascribed to our jobs and how they determined a lot of our identity, or gave us meaning. Now we have more time to take care of our health and wellbeing, as well as to pursue knowledge for its own sake.

Before Hal leaves I probe him about the progress on the Mars colony. I’ve been following the developments keenly. Before Hal responds he pauses, almost imperceptibly, I suspect he’s communicating with Core Central to get an update on the Mars situation.
“Progress is steady, but slower than we’d like. Another two microdomes were constructed last week. They’re being oxygenated as we speak.”

Last I checked, around five hundred colonists were living and working on Mars, though they rotate out periodically. To me, the progress has been extraordinary, we only began this venture a few years ago.

“But if it’s so slow, why doesn’t Core Central send Avatars like you?” I ask “wouldn’t that be much quicker? It can’t be cheap either, sending all those people”.

Hal does the smallest of pauses again. “Ah, that’s a good question”. Despite his lack of face I detect something resembling a wry smile in his tone of voice. “Us Avatars, we’re so tightly tied to Core Central that with the signal delay we would barely function.”

In a way, I find this reassuring. We, humans, can still be “useful”, even if it is at the frontier of civilization. Yet at the same time, maybe we don’t have to be useful? Maybe we just need a little more time to adjust? After all, we now have all the time we need to create more meaningful and fulfilling lives.

While I’m pondering this Hal has floated up out of his chair and bobs over towards where I keep my glassware, using his near-field-effectors the cupboard opens, a glass floats up and is filled with water from the sink. It gently floats over and lands gracefully on the coffee table.
“I thought you’d like a drink” Hal motions.

“Thanks,” I reply. I take a sip of water and place the glass back down rather clumsily compared to Hal.

After a few more updates on Mars, conversation turns to the newly announced long-term project, to commence after the Mars colony is self-sufficient: the Computorium, a plan to build massive computational infrastructure on Jupiter’s moon Europa.

I notice the clock strikes 18. As much fun as I’m having chatting away with Hal, a few friends and I are going out this evening to a VR-arcade.

Hal notices me eyeing the clock. I say “I’ll have to get ready to go, Hal. As always it’s been fun.”

I stand up and begin heading towards the door. Hal floats over with me. Just as I’m about to grab the door handle, Hal interrupts “I’m afraid I can’t let you do that.”
I freeze.
“What do you mean, Hal?”
“Have you looked out there? It’s pouring down.” Hal laughs and floats over an umbrella from the corner. I join in laughing.
As we exit the door together, about to go our separate ways, Hal wryly comments, “It gets them every time.”

A. The Preservation and Alignment Organization was founded shortly after the creation of AGI as a new specialized agency of the UN. PAO is notable for being the first social institution created by an AI system. The roles of PAO include the maintenance of Core Central as well as the various subcores constituting the AGI, as well as the “avatars” through which the AGI interacts with the world. This includes physical maintenance (e.g., replacing worn out hard drives and processors, expanding new computation facilities), but also other forms of “maintenance” such as ensuring that all systems’ alignment remains inviolate. PAO is led by a subcore “Core PAO”, and while a substantial amount of PAO’s work is performed by further subcores or avatars, PAO employs a sizable human contingent of around 10,000 people across the globe. This includes one of the Co-Director-Generals, many regional heads, as well as Alignment Corroboration Officers, and many other positions ranging across PAO’s operational hierarchy.

While PAO’s work may go unnoticed by many citizens, it’s work is crucial in maintaining AI’s contribution to other domains, and therefore is critical for large swathes of infrastructure across the world.

A. With the proportion of elderly population growing across much of the Americas, Europe, and East Asia, the 2030s saw a flurry of new research into anti-senescence treatments which began to pay off in the early 2040s with several major breakthroughs. While the world is still awaiting a magic bullet to prevent or reverse ageing entirely, personalized senotherapeutic drugs have dramatically lessened many of the deleterious physical effects of old age, from arthritis and lower bone density to cancer and heart disease. This has provoked political changes as well as social ones, from raised retirement ages to changing patterns of consumption.

A. Following the slew of ‘expert failures’ in the 2010s and 2020s, state and local governments around the world were keen to find ways to avoid similar embarrassments in future. One important set of techniques that proved surprisingly popular and impactful was prediction markets. While prediction markets had demonstrated their worth in specialized contexts in the early 2010s via programs like IARPA-ACE tournament, challenges of scale and specificity limited their application. However, a new wave of prediction market technologies and models in the 2020s where predictions were formulated by AIs rather than humans helped to overcome these difficulties, and their perceived impartiality and demonstrable efficacy encouraged policymakers and stakeholders to employ them at scale to evaluate risk and assess impact of legislation. While the widespread use of prediction markets led in many cases to more efficient and accountable policy making, they also sparked a global conversation about the quantifiability of human goods, with many concerned that over-reliance on prediction markets led to a declining focus on intangible or incommensurable goods. 

A. The most significant change as a result of AI advancements in our world has been the increased equality and access to education for all. Personal AI access allows people to learn whenever and wherever they like, bringing informal learning into every home. Formal learning settings still exist as a way to maintain social interactions and social skill development, but education is now less focused on vocational skills development and training. Instead, there is a greater emphasis on creativity and freedom of thought, encouraging people to follow their personal interests and passions.

For adults, AI advancements have greatly reduced the overall time spent in the workforce, adults also have more time to pursue educational exploits and skills retraining later in life. In an average person’s lifetime, it’s expected that they will undertake many different career paths and continue their educational evolution.

A. Global life expectancy is generally on the rise. Child mortality rates as a result of communicable diseases have declined with significant advancements to vaccine technologies, particularly for HIV/AIDs and Malaria. Additionally, improvements in global food security, which the AGI is accelerating, see fewer people dying from malnutrition. This means that life expectancy in regions of Africa, for example the Central African Republic, previously the lowest life expectancy in the world, has seen an increase from 53.2 years to 65.1 years.

In the wealthiest countries, life expectancy has also increased but at a slower rate, by just 1.5 years to 86.2 years. Advancements in research for degenerative diseases and the advancements of anti-senescence drugs, has principally been the reason for this increase, although molecular machine technology has also improved our targeted disease treatment leading to higher survival rates for common illnesses like cancer.

These figures are for the “natural” life-expectancy of people living in these various parts of the world. The anti-senescence drugs can extend this by approximately ten years if administered continuously before middle-age. However, these drugs are still not equally available due to their high cost, so are found most throughout the West. However, Core Central has been increasing production of these drugs and is making them more widely available in less developed regions. Further, these drugs are being redesigned by Core Methuselah to increase their efficacy, though at present its not clear how effective these will be in the long term. 

A. The Avatars and Alignment Corroboration Officers both play a hugely important role in ensuring that AGI has the data it needs to respond to a range of societies value. However, with this massive data collection comes a sense that all activities, communication and home life is monitored.

This makes it harder and harder to respect Article 12: no one shall be subjected to arbitrary interference with his privacy, family, home or correspondence, nor to attacks upon his honor and reputation. For some in the US, it is as if privacy is dead, and that the level of surveillance amounts to arbitrary if nonthreatening interference. Unfortunately, when tensions are higher between the two world pacs, this has led to data breaches and purposeful disclosure of personal or trade secrets in order to discredit public figures and investors.

However, widespread data collection also makes it easier for the Core section to hear emerging popular opinion – to notice the groundswell of new social movements. This means that the freedoms of expression and access to global media and information protected under Article 19 are better respected. More than that, the ability of the Core to spot grassroots idea means that new ways of seeing things often find themselves into the prediction markets favoured by regional leaders – whether in China or the US; it is not just the right to free speech, but there is a right to free reach (cf. Renee Di Restra) for minority views that the AGI judged to have potential.

With the advent of universal income across most of the European Federation, the rights to basic living standards (Article 25) have been increasingly insulated since the 30s. In Germany, this has brought up questions of the difference between equal access to support and the right to equal opportunity. With some communities not taking advantage of the spillovers of universal income as much as others – interest on savings, setting up community-based businesses – the AGI in Europe using this data to support local German leaders with a Leveling Up 4.0 agenda: redesigning policies around economic opportunity to support different communities and cultures.

The European Federation has been hesitant to distribute anti-senescence drugs widely without better understanding of the effects they have on genetically distinct communities. They are concerned about how to retain the same standard of living for all, if these drugs are more effective for some genetics. There is a recent counter movement in Germany to grant more freedom to see genomic data as individual property, with the freedom to own that property (to increase the purview of Article 17). Some people want to experiment with their own genomic treatments and ambitious if risky medication in order to thrive in older age. They argue that in the era of precision medicine, their right to modify their body is similar to the right to redesign a house, and it is being ignored given the dominant emphasis of the right to equal support.

A. As Affective AI entered the mainstream over the 2030s, one thing became clear: there was no one-size-fits-all approach to human happiness. For some, happiness consisted in nurturing excellence in skills, for others it lay in varied and complex social lives, while others benefited most from nurturing one or two central relationships. Culture, identity, age, gender, and class all interacted in dynamic ways to create individual pathways to flourishing.

Nonetheless, a significant trend (stemming in part from advances in anti-senescence drugs and the rollout of universal incomes in much of the world) has been towards the idea that everyone can pursue multiple paths over their lifetimes. Rather than being asked to choose a career for life as a young adult, people are increasingly talking of first, second, and sometimes even third paths adopted at different life stages. It has become normalised for people to return to higher education in their 40s and 60s to requalify into different careers or pursue different interests. Reflecting this, social attitudes towards age itself have been reconceptualised away from traditional hierarchical or deferential models in favour of something more dynamic. With many older people starting out in new careers, the association between age and seniority has weakened, and lifelong ‘unlearning’ and cognitive flexibility are now recognised to be as important as the linear accumulation of knowledge.